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Featured with Q4 Updates
Of the Top 100 stocks by Market Cap, AMZN and META are in the bottom 5 for Q4 average performance over the past 5 years.
Research & Trade Idea Reports
Q4 Insights
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Q4 is typically the best quarter of the year (6 out of the last 10 years)
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5 Yr weighted average return 9.9% for S&P 500 vs Q1 3.7%, Q2 2.6%, Q3 0.4%
* Investors that often sell covered calls, should be careful selling calls for Nov expiration as most of the 4th quarter’s returns are in Nov. On average, selling calls for Dec expiration the week of Nov expiration historically has been a much better strategy.
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Mag 7 stocks 5 yr average return is 8.8% vs. 9.9% for the S&P. More interesting, Q4 is the 3rd best performing quarter with Q1 and Q2 much better over the past 5 years.
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Mag 7 stocks November was the best month in Q4 for all 7 stocks
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Chip stocks + SMH shows similar but better relative November performance. 75% of Q4 returns have been in November.
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The top 6 performing stocks for Q4 are all chip stocks (AVGO, ANET, AMD, KLAC, LRCX, MU)
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Of the Top 100 stocks by market cap (>$103B), AMZN and META in the bottom 5 for Q4 average performance over the past 5 years.
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Best sectors: XLI, XLK, XLF
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While energy is in the lower half for performance for sectors, its Q1 returns are historically very strong. It’s a good candidate for a 3 month booster.
S&P Stocks Insights
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6 of the Top 100 S&P 500 stocks by Market Cap beat the S&P 500 for the past 5 years.
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CBRE is the only S&P 500 stock that outperformed the S&P 500 in each of the past 10 years. Note that we did not filter here for market cap.
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BMY is the only stock in the Top 100 by Market Cap whose November Avg. Return was negative (-1.2%).
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November had 1 stock that was negative (BMY)
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October had 15 stocks that were negative
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December had 13 stocks negative
Magnificent 7 Stocks Insights
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November has been far and away the best month for these stocks averaging 8.8% for the past 5 years.
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For NVDA, TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, the vast majority of their returns came in November.
Individual Sector Insights
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Consumer Discretionary is the only sector where the Equal-Weighted ETF (RSPD) significantly outperformed the SPDR Sector ETF (XLY). This is because AMZN with a weight of 21% had a 0.9% 5 Yr Avg Return and TSLA with a weight of 16% has a 6.3% 5 Yr Avg Return.
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RSPD Return = 12.3%
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XLY Return = 5.5%